Savills has published its expectations for the luxury real estate sector in major cities around the world for 2025. The real estate consultancy anticipates that the price of ‘premium’ homes will increase, on average, by 1.6% this year, a lower figure than last year (2.2%). Lisbon occupies 5th place in the ranking, with an estimated price increase of between 4% and 6%, in line with the growth that occurred in 2024 (6%).

The consultancy predicts that the price of luxury housing will increase by up to 10% in Dubai, the city that will see the most increase in the price of prime properties, followed by Sydney (Australia), where they will rise by up to 6%.

Two Spanish cities and one Portuguese city are in the Top 5 where the price of luxury housing will increase the most this year: Madrid, Barcelona and Lisbon, where an increase of between 4% and 6% is expected. The same happens in Cape Town (South Africa).

Falling prices

Hong Kong, London and Guangzhou are where prices will fall the most. On the other hand, the consultancy predicts that the price of these luxury homes will fall in some of the most important cities in the world, such as Hong Kong, London (United Kingdom) and Guangzhou (China), where the annual drop will be between -2% and -4%.

Savills estimates that high interest rates, political uncertainty and the tariffs that Donald Trump wants to impose will affect demand for luxury housing in the Asian territory, predicting an even greater drop than last year (-4.2% in Shenzhen, -4% in Guangzhou and -2.4% in Hong Kong).

On the other hand, the decline in London is attributed to the increase in the cost of mortgage loans, restrictions on foreign investors and the increase in taxes for the rich: “The main reasons for the fall in prices in London are the elimination of the preferential tax status enjoyed by non-residents and the two percentage point increase in stamp duty”, highlighted Kelcie Seller, researcher at Savills, in statements to Bloomberg.

Prices remain stable in Genoa, Milan and Berlin Luxury housing prices will vary little this year in Genoa, Milan (both in Italy) and Berlin (Germany). And in other major cities such as Los Angeles, Paris, Bangkok, Beijing, Seoul, Hangzhou, Athens and New York, the increase will be practically minimal, at most 2%.

Luxury home prices in 2024: Hong Kong leads The same study also published the average price of luxury homes recorded in these major cities during 2024. Hong Kong leads the ranking with 38,000 euros per square meter (euros/m2), followed by New York (25,500 euros/m2), Genoa (25,200 euros/m2) and Tokyo (20,900 euros).

Lisbon (13,800 euros/m2), Madrid (11,000 euros/m2) and Barcelona (8,600 euros/m2) are in positions 20, 25 and 29, respectively, below the global average (14,800 euros/m2).

In contrast, the cities with the cheapest luxury housing prices are Kuala Lumpur (2,400 euros/m2) and Cape Town (2,500 euros/m2).

Madrid and Barcelona, ​​where prices increased the most The city where the price of luxury homes increased the most was Madrid, the capital of Spain, with an annual variation of 9.4%, followed by Barcelona and Tokyo, with an increase of 8.6%. Lisbon ranks seventh, with an annual increase of 6%.