Montepio’s weekly economy and markets bulletin pointed to the “substantially adverse conditions” facing the retail and industrial sectors in this period and particularly stressed the impact of December where it estimates a 3.8 percent month-on-month fall in the retail sector while Portuguese industrial output decreased by 2.6 percent.
However, the Montepio team adds that this does still mean economic growth continues on the rise with an eventual 0.4 percent rise still building on the 0.3 percent growth in the 3rd quarter.
Furthermore, the bulletin points out that the headwinds prevailing throughout 2014, geopolitical risks in eastern Europe and the Middle East and national issues, such as the collapse of Grupo Espírito Santo, remained in effect even while action by the European Central Bank and the plunge in the oil price did suggest the 2015 growth rate of 1.5 percent was still within reach.
Portugal’s electricity consumption over recent months continues to demonstrate the underlying economic anaemia.
According to data from the national grid operator REN, January saw Portugal burn its way through 4,712 gigawatts hours (GWh) of electricity, up from 4,575 GWh for the unusually warm month of January in 2014.
However, when corrected for the effects of temperature and the number of working days in the month, electricity consumption was actually down 0.7 percent in January and continuing the 0.7 percent year-on-year fall of annualised 2014 consumption and down 6.5 percent on the peak year recorded in 2010.
Making matters worse were the prevailing weather conditions ensuring January registered 54 percent and 35 percent drops in the level of hydro and wind power respectively.
However, Portugal still put in a reasonable environmental performance with renewables accounting for 49 percent, with hydro-electric chipping in with 21 percent, wind 22 percent, biomass 5 percent and solar power 1 percent.
Furthermore, Friday, January 30 saw wind production notch up its best ever level with 96 GWh churned out by the windfarms meeting 60 percent of Portuguese consumption that day and up from the previous peak of 88 GWh registered last March.