According to the Bank of Portugal (BdP), "Since 2018 there has been an improvement in the risk profile of borrowers taking out mortgage loans". In 2023, there was a "clear growth" in housing credit granted to low-risk customers, having increased to 61% (compared to 49% in 2022), in a year of rising interest rates and housing prices.
New mortgage loans include loan transfers between banks (2023 was an exceptional year for credit transfers). However, the Bank of Portugal does not (at least for now) make any connection between risk reduction and credit transfer as you will need more time to see the evolution. However, the report warns that, due to this, the customer profile in 2023 "is not directly comparable with that of previous years".
A low-risk client means that they have an effort rate of less than or equal to 50% of income and a 'loan to value' ratio (the amount lent by the bank to the value of the house) less than or equal to 80%.
Still, in 2023, housing credit granted to customers with high risk (effort rate above 60% and 'loan to value' ratio above 90%) was 3% of the total (the same proportion since 2020) and to customers with intermediate risk 36% of the total (down from 48% in 2022).
The average age of new home loan operations was 30.6 years in December 2023, so - according to Banco de Portugal, banks are complying with the recommendation to converge the average maturity to 30 years. Even so, in the European Union (EU), Portugal has one of the highest average ages for new mortgage credit operations. In the EU countries for which information is available, the average age ranges between 20 and 27 years.
Mortgage loans typically last dozens of years, so when granting credit, banks assess the customer's ability to continue paying if interest rates rise.
In 2023, given the increase in interest rates, Banco de Portugal reduced the effort rate that banks have to simulate to facilitate access to this credit from 3% to 1.5%. It kept other criteria from the 2018 macroprudential measure unchanged, such as the limits on the duration of contracts or the proportion between the amount of credit and the value of the property given as collateral.
Alternative headline: Nearly half of mortageges at high risk.
By Robert from Beiras on 29 Mar 2024, 11:16