The nationality law provides that every citizen with a residence permit and living in Portugal can apply, five years after requesting regularisation of their process as an immigrant.

This includes many of those who submitted expressions of interest three or four years ago and whose applications have only now been processed, warns Pedro Góis, from the University of Coimbra and one of the authors of the study by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, presented in December.

“This could have an impact on a large increase in new nationals in the coming years”, although the citizenship granting processes are also very delayed.

In addition to these cases, there are family reunification processes that will increase this total number of new Portuguese people.

In turn, Rui Costa Lopes, from the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) at the University of Lisbon, highlighted that many future Portuguese do not intend to stay in Portugal, as they chose the country in the wake of a “greater closure of borders in Europe ”, particularly in the United Kingdom, with 'brexit'.

Moving to other countries

After obtaining Portuguese citizenship, they will be able to leave for other countries and this will pose new consular challenges for Portugal, because, “for all intents and purposes, they are Portuguese emigrant citizens”, warned Pedro Góis.

The researcher highlighted that the data also indicate that many of the immigrants registered in Portugal are already in other European countries.

“There are some professions that are typical, such as heavy vehicle drivers” or “workers working in construction that Portuguese companies subcontract to various European countries,” he explained.

“There are other RRPs (Recovery and Resilience Plans) from other European countries, which also have a large participation of Portuguese labour and foreign labour residing in Portugal,” he explained.

Pedro Góis highlighted that this phenomenon was already occurring in the United Kingdom, which had the Portuguese as “the most incarcerated foreign population”, when the majority were of Goan, Angolan or Guinean origin, “all of them with Portuguese passports”.

However, the fact that the census does not identify ethnic-racial origins will lead to the invisibility of these immigrants who are not integrated into society but who, from the moment they have a Portuguese passport, are no longer considered foreigners.

“If we want to somehow know where the ethnic minorities are in Portugal and make targeted public policies, we need to know them in some way”, considered João António, from the Catholic University.

“We have to start thinking seriously that integration does not end after five years, when the passport is issued, and it is necessary to go much further than that”, stated Pedro Góis.

Decrease in immigrants

In the coming years, the level of immigrants in Portugal will decrease a lot, not because they have left the country but because they have obtained Portuguese nationality.

“This poses new challenges for which we have to prepare ourselves,” highlighted Rui Costa Lopes.

According to the study, presented in December, 63% of respondents want a decrease in immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, 68% of respondents consider that the "immigration policy in force in Portugal is too permissive regarding the entry of immigrants", 67.4 % say they contribute to more crime and 68.9% think they help keep wages low.

At the same time, 68% agree that immigrants "are fundamental to the national economy."

In the same survey in which 42% of respondents overestimate the number of immigrants in Portugal, the majority are in favor of granting rights, such as the right to vote (58.8%), facilitating naturalization (51.8%) or processes family reunification (77.4%).

João António acknowledged that the increase in immigrants “was very rapid in a short space of time” and “there is a set of opinions and sensitivities among the Portuguese population that need to be addressed.

Pedro Góis, on the other hand, makes the mistake of thinking that immigrants “arrived between 2022 and 2024, but in fact, many of them arrived earlier and only now has the system integrated them”.

Therefore, this year, “we will see a big jump in the number of immigrants, although the number of new emigrants arriving is already decreasing.”

Regarding this type of research, the scientific director of the Migration Observatory also argued that they should be carried out “more frequently”, so that the results are less dependent on specific contexts of public opinion.