In an essay which was published in The Portugal News on 12 March 2024 I made a synopsis of the potential environmental damage and/or benefit which could be caused by the exploitation of the mineral and water resources in a region of southern California and showed how comparisons could be made to similar projects proposed in Portugal. In the space of one year, there has arisen an astonishing change in these circumstances:

Researchers funded by the U.S. Department of Energy have quintupled their estimate of lithium contained in the brine below the Salton Sea to 18 million metric tons with a projected market value of US$ 540 billion. This quantity is sufficient to manufacture batteries for more than 1.5 billion e-vehicles. If correct, this finding would end US reliance on external supply and completely re-balance the global energy market.

However, Governor Gavin Newsom´s exuberant claim that the Imperial (sic) County could now be described as “the Saudi Arabia of Lithium” may be regarded as circumspect in view of the announcement made by China on 04 April that it will ban the export to the USA of seven vital rare earth elements which are essential for the production of smartphones, electric vehicles and military equipment. This is in addition to the halt announced in February by Jiangsu Jiuwu Hi-Tech in the export of sorbents which are crucial for the extraction process of lithium from brine.

It would seem that US aspirations to replace the world leadership of China as both possessor and processor of materials critical for the impending green industrial revolution are to be frustrated; at least in the short term.

The same impediments are also apparent for the controversial engagement in Deep Seabed Mining. Earlier this month, President Donald Trump invoked emergency powers to accelerate US endeavours to obtain supremacy over the production and utility of mineral wealth wherever it may be located. In particular, the Metals Company of Canada announced that it was to receive before 30 June an authorisation from the US government alone to commence dredging operations for the polymetallic nodules which can be found in profusion as part of the abyssal plateau in the vast maritime area known as the Clarion-Clipperton zone. This is located in the Pacific Ocean midway between Hawaii and Mexico. In doing so, the USA is flying in the face of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) which is recognized by member states of the UN as the global body which can exercise control outside of the sovereign coastal waters and Economic Exclusion Zones which constitute approximately 45 % of water surface area.

In the Atlantic Ocean, areas within the jurisdiction of ISA are relatively smaller than in the Pacific. The potential for DSM is mainly to be found on the volcanic ridges which are centred on the EEZ of the Azores and extends northwards to Iceland, Greenland and Scandinavia. Most of the seabed remains unexplored but north American mining companies are convinced that the extraction of nodules, magnesium and other minerals (perhaps not as abundant as in the Pacific) is of strategic importance for “making America great again” in the 21st century.

Since the time of WWII, the economies of both the Azores and Greenland have been heavily dependent on the requirements forced upon a small number of local citizens by the exigencies of the military bases at Lajes and Thule which geographically belong to Portugal and Denmark but are contributed to NATO and almost entirely financed and administered by the US. Originally designed for the storage of more than five hundred nuclear warheads in a maze of underground galleries, the base at Thule continues to be one of the largest in the global network of US military power and conceals secret armaments including weaponry for advanced chemical and biological warfare.

The uniquely erratic administration of President Trump has shown in less than three months that it intends to act as a global catalyst by bringing an authoritarian character to the new order of geopolitical economics. Whether or not this will be as cataclysmic as forecast by pundits is a matter of conjecture. However, it seems certain that the second Trump administration will be succeeded by a new class of politician/entrepreneur intent upon the “think big, act big, be big” mega-mentality which will perpetuate the policy of the USA´s welfare being the foremost consideration.

Despite being a small nation, Portugal is high in importance due to its possession of strategic resources. But firstly, it is worth noting that, since early 2025, there has been a downturn in the world markets. During the past five years the annual production of lithium carbonate has doubled in response to a forecast demand which, in practice, has weakened as market assessments of growth for e-vehicles and other potential products have diminished. Such re-assessment also applies to copper in which our country has always been rich due to the vast deposits in the Pyrite belt. Thus, the political pressures for rapid exploitation in order to finance debt (and to make the elite richer!) are diminishing and may result in a more coherent policy for controlling the forward sale of stocks at a time and price which will benefit the nation.

US corporations and individual citizens continue to make large investments in the Portuguese economy but there is little likelihood that the USA as a state will want to own it partially as has been suggested for the development of real estate in Gaza! However, the annexation of the Azores is always a card in hand for the game of territorial poker now being played by President Trump.

by Roberto Cavaleiro - Tomar. 09 April 2025

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